Gears of War: E-Day Estimates Put Xbox Sales at 62K, Game Pass Players at 1.7M

Alinea also estimates 168,000 Steam purchases, more than 722,000 paid Premium upgrades, and about $37 million in gross revenue across Xbox and Steam.

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Close-up of an armored soldier with a glowing blue light on his shoulder.

After Gears of War: E-Day Premium early access began on October 1, Alinea Analytics estimated that 1.7 million people had played through Game Pass and that the game had sold 230,000 copies across Xbox and Steam. Its October 9 estimate breaks that total into 62,000 Xbox purchases, including console and PC, and 168,000 Steam purchases. These are estimates, not official sales disclosures. Alinea’s analysis is available here.

SteamDB’s contemporaneous ownership estimate ranged from 171,000 to 195,000. That is an estimate of owners, not a sales count, and such figures can shift soon after launch.

Alinea also estimates that more than 722,000 Game Pass subscribers paid $30 for the Premium Edition Upgrade to get early access. The 1.7 million figure counts Game Pass players, not extra copies sold. Taken together, the estimated full-game sales and paid upgrades amount to roughly 952,000 sales and upgrade transactions.

Alinea puts gross revenue at about $37 million, assigning 74.6% to Xbox and 25.4% to Steam. Its estimate does not clarify whether, or how, Game Pass subscription revenue is allocated to the game, so the total is difficult to compare directly with standalone game sales receipts.

The $69.99 standalone option is the Standard Edition, not the separate $99.99 Premium Edition. Game Pass Ultimate and PC Game Pass include Standard, while Premium adds up to five days of early access. Subscribers can pay $30 for the Premium Edition Upgrade rather than buying the full Premium Edition.

Alinea analyst Rhys Elliott reads the sales mix as evidence that the $69.99 Xbox purchase is effectively finished. But the figures cannot show how many Game Pass players would have bought E-Day without subscription access, or how many subscriptions the game helped attract.

The estimates also leave the PS5 counterfactual unanswered. Push Square previously reported that an almost-finished PS5 version existed at The Coalition and that the game had received PS5 ratings in some regions. Alinea’s figures cover only Xbox and Steam, so they say nothing about how a PlayStation release might have sold.

In a separate post, not a direct response to Alinea’s figures, Circana analyst Mat Piscatella made a related point. Playing a game included with a subscription does not automatically mean someone gave up a full-price purchase.

And it isn't straight cannibalism if a person paying for Game Pass plays an offered game through the service.Please. Let's be serious people. Or at least try to be.

— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2026-10-09T17:11:12.511Z

Would you count Game Pass upgrades alongside full-game sales when weighing E-Day‘s launch? For more on how subscription access and platform decisions shape the sales picture, stay connected on X, Bluesky, YouTube, Instagram, Steam, and Telegram.

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