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GTA 6 Could Cost the US $1 Billion If 1.5 Million Workers Call In Sick

The economist projects that men ages 18 to 30 would account for most absences, with the technology sector facing the largest hit.

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Lucia and Jason stand on a city street in Grand Theft Auto VI.

When GTA 6 launches on November 19, 2026, as many as 1.5 million U.S. workers could call in sick, with lost output potentially reaching $1 billion. Pompeu Fabra University economics professor José García Montalvo’s projection uses average annual output of about $70,000 per U.S. worker and estimates a short-term productivity dip of roughly 2%. It is an academic scenario, not an official forecast.

Montalvo’s scenario puts most absences among men ages 18 to 30, with the technology sector facing the largest hit. That profile echoes the age and occupation of people who took time off to play GTA 5. Employees who come in may still lose focus after late nights, streams, and launch chatter, while some companies have announced plans to close on launch day.

Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick separately told shareholders the company expects more than $1 billion in operating cash flow for the fiscal year, with GTA 6 as a main driver. Newzoo estimates put global first-week sales at at least 37 million copies, with retail bookings as high as $4.5 billion. Newzoo also estimated about $260 million in worldwide bookings during the opening preorder week. The projected labor-output loss is not a dollar-for-dollar transfer to Take-Two, and its cash-flow forecast covers a full fiscal year rather than launch week.

Would a GTA 6 sick day feel realistic at your workplace? Follow the continuing story around the game’s projected workplace impact and sales estimates on X, Bluesky, YouTube, Instagram, Steam, and Telegram.

Grand Theft Auto VI heads to the state of Leonida, home to the neon-soaked streets of Vice City and beyond in the biggest, most immersive evolution of the Grand Theft Auto series yet.